Is swine flu (H1N1) a cause of an epidemic or pandemic in 2009?

An epidemic is defined as an outbreak of a contagious disease that is rapid and widespread, affecting many individuals at the same time. The swine flu outbreak in Mexico fit this definition. A pandemic is an epidemic that becomes so widespread that it affects a region, continent, or the world. As of April 2009, the H1N1 swine flu outbreak did not meet this definition. However, as of June 11, 2009, WHO officials determined that H1N1 2009 influenza A swine flu reached WHO level 6 criteria (person-to-person transmission in two separate WHO-determined world regions) and declared the first flu pandemic in 41 years. To date, the flu has reached over 74 different countries on every continent except Antarctica in about three month's time; fortunately, the severity of the disease has not increased.

What is the prognosis (outlook) for patients who get swine flu (H1N1)?

The following is speculation on the prognosis for swine flu (H1N1) because this disease has only been recently diagnosed and the data is changing daily. This section is based on currently available information.
In general, the majority (about 90%-95%) of people who get the disease feel terrible (see symptoms) but recover with no problems, as seen in patients in both Mexico and the U.S. Caution must be taken as the swine flu (H1N1) is still spreading and has become a pandemic. So far, young adults have not done well, and in Mexico, this group currently has the highest mortality rate, but this data could quickly change.
People with depressed immune systems historically have worse outcomes than uncompromised individuals; investigators suspect that as swine flu (H1N1) spreads, the mortality rates may rise and be high in this population. Current data suggest that pregnant individuals, children under 2 years of age, young adults, and individuals with any immune compromise or debilitation are likely to have a worse prognosis. Unfortunately, the problem with the prognosis is still unclear. If the mortality is like the conventional flu that causes mortality rates of about 0.1%, the result would be about 36,000 deaths per year because of the huge number of people who get infected. If the Mexico swine flu (H1N1) ends up with a mortality rate of about 6% and infects the same number of millions of people as conventional flu viruses, the projected numbers could be as high as 2 million deaths in the U.S. alone. This is a bad prognosis for about 2 million people and their families; these potential deaths are major reasons that health officials are so concerned about the spread of this new virus. As of September 2009, the current estimates are that about 90,000 deaths will occur in the U.S. from novel H1N1 swine flu (estimated by the president's advisory committee). As of October, these estimates have not been revised by the advisory committee or the CDC.
Another confounding problem with the prognosis of swine flu (H1N1) is that the disease is occurring and spreading in high numbers at the usual end of the flu season. Most flu outbreaks happen between November to the following April, with peak activity between late December to March. This outbreak is not following the usual flu pattern since novel H1N1 began its outbreak in April and had spread throughout the world by September. Some scientists think that swine flu (H1N1) will die down but return with many more cases in the fall, and still others speculate the current pandemic will eventually resemble the outcomes similar to the 1918 influenza pandemic. Some suggest it may resemble the SARS (severe acute respiratory syndrome caused by a coronavirus strain) outbreak in 2002-2003 in which the disease spread to about 10 countries with over 7,000 cases, over 700 deaths, and had a 10% mortality rate. Effective isolation of patients was done in this case, and many investigators think the outbreak was stopped due to this measure. Because swine flu (H1N1) is a new virus and does not seem to be following the usual flu disease pattern, any prognosis is speculative, although as of October 2009, the numbers of people with flu-like illness are higher than usual and the illness is affecting a much younger population than the conventional flu. As the pandemic progresses, this article will be updated. The best news about this novel H1N1 swine flu is that the majority of people, as of October 2009, who have caught the flu recover without medical treatment and have an excellent prognosis.